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环球时报(GLOBAL TIMES) | 余淼杰:中国2026年GDP增长目标彰显灵活性,经济具备稳健扩张基础

2026-03-09 09:06   来源:

China targets economic growth of 4.5 to 5 percent in 2026 and will strive for better in practice, according to a government work report submitted Thursday to the country's top legislature for deliberation. The target reflects flexibility, enabling local regions to prioritize high-quality economic growth and, more importantly, to contribute to Chinese modernization.

The adjustment of the economic growth target aligns with the guiding principles of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, creating sufficient room for the transformation and upgrading of China's growth model, propelled by the development of new quality productive forces. The flexible range-based target will help alleviate the situation of strong supply but weak demand, thereby addressing the issue of persistently low prices.

Compared with the GDP growth target, more attention should be paid to China's resilient growth momentum. The government work report has outlined solid steps to be taken to achieve the goal, including building a robust domestic market, fostering new growth drivers at a faster pace, and accelerating self-reliance and strength in science and technology.

A series of favorable factors will ensure China's overall upward growth in the medium to long-term. China's economic growth can be characterized by several keywords, namely "stable", "diverse", "strong", and "large". Currently, the world is facing unprecedented changes unseen in a century - geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and the international situation is becoming more turbulent. Against this backdrop, China's economy remains stable and sustainable.


As for "diverse," China has many advantages in its economy, such as its strong manufacturing value-added sector, the real economy, and the cultivation of new quality productive forces. In particular, the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the central government adhere to the combination of an effective market and a proactive government, which constitutes an institutional and governance advantage in promoting high-quality development.

In terms of "strength", this is reflected in China's rapid development of technological innovation capability, with some sectors not only reaching the forefront globally, but even ranking first in the world. In terms of total economic output, China still ranks second. However, judging from indicators such as foreign exchange reserves and total trade volume, China clearly holds a leading position in the world.

China has built a comprehensive industrial system encompassing 41 major categories, making it the world's only country with a complete set of industrial classifications recognized by the United Nations. Notably, emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new and clean energy, high-end equipment, biomedicine, and quantum computing are thriving.

More importantly, with a population of over 1.4 billion, China's super-large market and ever-growing consumption strength will continue to unleash enormous import demand and growth potential.

According to this year's government work report, a total of 1.3 trillion yuan ($188.85 billion) of ultra-long special treasury bonds will be issued to provide continued support for endeavors such as implementing major national strategies, enhancing security capacity in key areas, and carrying out large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-in programs. Experience in the past several years has shown that this policy is effective for driving growth.

Thus, I believe that China's economy will maintain a contribution rate of 30 percent to global economic growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), continuing to be a driving engine of the global economy.

Currently, external risks and challenges are intensifying, especially the unilateralism and narrow isolationism pursued by some countries, which pose significant challenges to economic globalization. However, the more turbulent the external environment and the more uncertain the global economy, the more we need to manage our own affairs well.

The guiding principles for China's economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period are very clear. "We will continue to pursue economic development as our central task, with high-quality development as our main focus, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, meeting the people's ever-growing needs for a better life as our fundamental goal, and full and rigorous Party self-governance as the fundamental underpinning for all our efforts," as stated in the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, which were made public in October.

China is expected to advance reforms in areas such as the building of a unified national market, with key tasks including unifying the underlying institutions and rules of the market, improving the high-standard market infrastructure connectivity, and building a unified market for factors and resources so as to contribute to the construction of a new development pattern and promote the country's high-quality development.

The article is based on an interview with Yu Miaojie, a deputy to the 14th National People's  Congress and president of Liaoning University. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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根据周四提交中国最高立法机关审议的政府工作报告,中国将2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%—5%区间,并在实际工作中力争取得更好结果。这一目标体现出灵活性,既为地方推动经济高质量发展留出侧重空间,更重要的是,也将为中国式现代化建设注入动力。

经济增长目标的调整,与2025年中央经济工作会议精神相一致,为中国经济增长模式转型升级留出充足空间,推动以新质生产力发展为牵引的结构优化。这一弹性区间目标,将有助于缓解供给偏强、需求偏弱的局面,进而应对物价持续偏低问题。

相较于GDP增速目标,更应关注中国经济具备的强劲增长韧性。政府工作报告已明确一系列扎实举措,包括着力构建强大国内市场、加快培育新增长点、推动科技高水平自立自强等,为实现发展目标提供坚实保障。

一系列有利因素将确保中国经济在中长期保持整体向上增长。中国经济增长可用“稳”、“多”、“强”、“大”几个关键词来概括。当前,世界正经历百年未有之大变局,地缘冲突加剧,国际形势更趋动荡复杂。在此背景下,中国经济依然保持稳定、可持续发展。

 

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中国经济增长的根本动力,在于国家的经济安全与社会稳定。“十四五”时期(2021—2025年),中国经济接连迈上110万亿、120万亿、130万亿、140万亿元四个台阶,彰显出经济基础更加稳固、韧性更为强劲。

说到“多”,中国经济具备多重优势:制造业增加值规模庞大、实体经济根基深厚,新质生产力加快培育。特别是中国共产党和中央政府坚持有效市场和有为政府有机结合,构成了推动高质量发展的制度优势和治理优势。

说到“强”,主要体现在中国科技创新能力快速提升,部分领域不仅跻身世界前列,甚至位居全球首位。经济总量上,中国仍居世界第二位;但从外汇储备、贸易总额等指标看,中国已稳居世界领先地位。

中国已建成涵盖41个工业大类的完整工业体系,是全球唯一拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类的国家。人工智能、新能源与清洁能源、高端装备、生物医药、量子计算等新兴产业蓬勃发展。

更为重要的是,中国拥有14亿多人口,超大规模市场与不断增强的消费能力,将持续释放巨大的进口需求与增长潜力。

根据今年政府工作报告,我国将发行1.3万亿元(约1888.5亿美元)超长期特别国债,持续支持实施国家重大战略、提升重点领域安全能力、开展大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新等工作。近年来实践表明,这一政策对拉动增长切实有效。

因此,我认为,“十五五”时期(2026—2030年),中国经济对全球经济增长的贡献率仍将保持在30%左右,继续成为世界经济增长的重要引擎。

当前,外部风险挑战加剧,特别是一些国家推行单边主义、狭隘保护主义,给经济全球化带来严峻挑战。但外部环境越动荡,全球经济越不确定,我们越要办好自己的事。

今年10月公布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确了“十五五”时期我国经济社会发展的指导思想:坚持以经济建设为中心,以高质量发展为主题,以改革创新为根本动力,以满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要为根本目的,以全面从严治党为根本保障。

中国有望在全国统一大市场建设等领域深化改革,重点任务包括:统一市场基础制度规则,完善高标准市场体系互联互通,建设全国统一的要素和资源市场,以此服务构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展。

本文根据第十四届全国人大代表、辽宁大学校长余淼杰专访整理。